Can you point me to the scientific “why” regarding the 6-month benchmark? I’ve looked before and all I can find is “because NAR says so” or “because it is widely accepted”.
I have no clue how this compares to other markets. Frankly I am not a huge fan of aggregating data like real estate that is so region dependent.
In any case, let’s call the Austin benchmark 4-months of supply. We only just crossed north of that in April of this year.
From the front lines I can tell you that yes, SF housing is under pressure. But unless you are high income and can handle a 7 handle mortgage (or are a cash buyer), it is also not exactly a “buyer’s market” either. This very strange interest rate environment has shrunk the pool of both buyers and sellers to create a very constrained market on both sides of a transaction. The only real question is, how long can this last? Also, are labor market fundamentals strong enough, long enough to outlast the Fed’s interest rate/ federal deficit problem?
Can you point me to the scientific “why” regarding the 6-month benchmark? I’ve looked before and all I can find is “because NAR says so” or “because it is widely accepted”.
In any case I am not convinced that it is the true “balanced market” metric. Using the data series for my MSA at (https://trerc.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/?data-MSA=Austin-Round+Rock-San+Marcos) the average Months Inventory for every month since 1990 is 3.9 and the Median is 3.85.
I have no clue how this compares to other markets. Frankly I am not a huge fan of aggregating data like real estate that is so region dependent.
In any case, let’s call the Austin benchmark 4-months of supply. We only just crossed north of that in April of this year.
From the front lines I can tell you that yes, SF housing is under pressure. But unless you are high income and can handle a 7 handle mortgage (or are a cash buyer), it is also not exactly a “buyer’s market” either. This very strange interest rate environment has shrunk the pool of both buyers and sellers to create a very constrained market on both sides of a transaction. The only real question is, how long can this last? Also, are labor market fundamentals strong enough, long enough to outlast the Fed’s interest rate/ federal deficit problem?
In my new jersey neighborhood 49 percent of sales are all cash so not impacted by mortgage rates
It’s a hot market apparently
But who are these cash buyers with median prices around 900k
Would be great to know the demographics of the cash buyers
Are the offshore buyers?
Hedge funds?
Middle class Americans who sold elsewhere and buying here
Really find these articles interesting Eric